The Bradley Effect

If you are a political junkie or a connoisseur of media programs, you’ve heard the term “Bradley Effect” many times during the long presidential campaign.  

The Bradley Effect, less commonly called the Wilder Effect, is a theory proposed to explain observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some U.S. government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Instead of ascribing the results to flawed methodology on the part of the pollster, the theory proposes that some voters tend to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his white opponent. It was named after Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

The Bradley effect theorizes that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters’ answers.

As most of the creditable pollsters were able to accurately predict the outcome of the 2008 presidential races both nationally and at the state level, the Bradley Effect has been (at least temporarily) put to bed. Although on second thought…as the 24-hour consumer- focused media require ample opiate to spoon feed the masses with “news” that creates controversy to further enhance the value of advertising dollars…we will see it again in 2012. See you soon Bradley!  

-Tom
tspeaks@igpr.com

Talk About Being a Hypocrite!

Ok, maybe that is not what you were talking about.

I watched this video on YouTube about a branding agency called mono that is moving to uptown Minneapolis, and people are trying to prevent it from moving there. They are picketing and trying to get signatures because the agency is using kids in ads (for Sesame Street, mind you), and the people
feel mono is brainwashing consumers into buying things they don’t want.

First of all, when you watch this, where is the punch line at the end? There has to be a joke – somewhere??

Second, aren’t they essentially also brainwashing people into their strange methodology? Look at how many people sign their petition just because they ask them to. I applaud the people that didn’t fall for it!

And my third and final point, who has the time to petition something like this? They really should put all their “spare” time into something more meaningful, such as a charity.

While advertising may sway your decisions on purchases, it is also because of advertising that we can get all the facts on big purchases so we can shop as educated consumers.  Can you imagine the bland existence we would be living in without advertising?  Thanks to advertising, we can see that there are choices to make, and we make them based on the education we garner from such agencies.

Krista
krodriguez@igpr.com

Day Three of President-Elect Obama’s Re-Election Campaign

Martin Moleski
mmoleski@igpr.com

History was made and the world seems to be pretty pleased that Americans selected Barack Obama as our next president. I have to give credit when credit is due, and he ran a near flawless campaign. Although he faced many hurdles, his campaign never lost focus of the end result; making sure he got to 270 electoral votes. If there was ever an appropriate time for a “Mission Accomplished” banner, it should have been displayed at Grant Park on Tuesday night (I like to imagine the campaign staff argued over whether they should put 60 American flags, multiple Greek columns or the banner behind him).

So now that Obama is just 74 days away until his historic inauguration, I’m actually more focused on the 750+ days or so from now when the Republicans try to get back into the White House. As I scanned the headlines this morning here is what I saw:

• Dow down 900+ points since Obama elected
• Jobless rate jumps to 14 year high
• Ford plans more cuts after $129 million loss
• Obama faces Cold War threat, warning from Israel

Not the best situation to be entering. My point here is that everything, EVERYTHING, President-Elect Obama does from today moving forward can be used against him in 2012. He needs to understand, if he wants to be re-elected, that his administration must be a continuation of his campaign. He can never stop campaigning. Every interview, statement, back room conversation, Joe Biden gaffe, cabinet position pick, legislation signed, etc. will be scrutinized and most likely used against him. He better be sure he picks the right kind of dog for his kids, too.

Remember, his campaign started in February of 2007. It won’t be long before it all starts again. My instincts tell me that he will be “Fired up….and Ready to Go.”

* Personal plea to President-Elect Obama: If you want to win Ohio again in 2012, please bring some of your change mojo to the Browns defense. They are awful.

Word on the street

My fiancé and I recently dined with a group of friends at a high-end Mexican restaurant in the East 4^th Neighborhood. Before we decided to go there, my fiancée and I warned everybody that we didn’t have a great experience the past few times we’d eaten there. The group proceeded to go back and forth, discussing how they heard the restaurant had problems before but now the new chef that Iron Chef Michael Symon chose took over and is supposed to have turn things around. Yes, that’s the word on the street. I’m sure the PR spin on the reopening of the restaurant with the new chef positioned it that way. But nothing has changed, and yet people are clinging to the message that the restaurant is better with the new chef.

So, after our group ate, everyone complained how awful the food was and that they’ll never go back. Duh! How come our opinion held no value with our friends but the local newspaper did? Certainly, our opinions now hold more weight since they too have experienced this overrated restaurant.

 I’m sure even the food critics didn’t like this food (unless they enjoy overpriced, small portions of high-end wannabe Mexican food), but felt obligated to write something positive because a negative critique would mean a failed restaurant in this up-and-coming neighborhood.

The point is that the Mexican restaurant needs to pay more attention to the PR that’s on the street and not what’s in the local newspapers and magazines. Restaurant patrons are the best PR vehicles; they’re going to tell everyone they know if a restaurant is good or not, and they will tell their friends, and so on. Word of mouth is one of the most powerful PR tools. Now, the word needs to get back to the new chef…

KK

Don’t Stop the Marketing

We all know the economy is not doing so well right now, and many businesses are cutting back on expenses in order to stay afloat.

One thing companies should not cut, if at all possible, is marketing, advertising or public relations and the agencies that do it.

PR-Squared has a great post about the reasons you should keep your agency, including the fact that an agency is cheaper than in-house PR. And it has been shown in the past that companies that stay in the public eye during a down economy benefit in the long run. Companies like Kraft and Jiff. Check out this article for results of studies that have been done about companies that continue to market in times like these.

Regardless of the studies, not everyone can afford to keep marketing. And that is where social media comes in. One of the beauties of social media marketing is that it is inexpensive to do in most cases.

Anyone can start a blog. You don’t have to pay someone to do it. All it takes is a little bit of your time each week to make it happen. And blogging is big. It’s a great way to reach your audience and have them reach back.

Twitter, Flickr, Facebook and MySpace are also excellent, free tools to use when communicating with your audience.

So, if you absolutely have to cut back on your public relations, marketing or advertising (we hope you don’t), keep social media in mind. You can still connect with your audience without spending a lot to do it.

Abbey
aswank@igpr.com

CNN.com and Interactivity

No matter what your political affiliation, you no doubt have followed the election going on as we speak. As I look forward to tonight (likely a late night), I am reminded of how different things are than the were even just four or eight years ago. The Internet has both expanded and narrowed our ability to find information related to the elections.

It has expanded in that sites like YouTube are now probably viewed more for political videos more than news sites themselves! In fact, news sites are actually directing people to YouTube and others to view their videos. Plus, in general, I can search for and locate just about anything I want relative to a city, a state, a candidate or an issue. Amazing!

At the same time, I believe it has narrowed our ability because we have such specific choices to get our information from – meaning if I believe in the death penalty, gambling and underwater research, I can probably find a site that gives me all the information I need in order to choose a candidate or issue I believe in. The problem? I don’t open my eyes to all the other “issues” out there because I get so bogged down with the narrow opinions of those groups I’ve found that share my beliefs.

All this being said, I think the Web has enabled us to find what we want, when we want it. The same applies for business to business or consumer-driven web sites. Organizations should take the same approach as CNN (www.CNN.com), for instance, in that EVRYTHING on the site is tailored to the visitor – and it changes regularly, so that what I see today is different from what I saw yesterday.

It’s something to think about – taking the mindset of a new organization with regard to the content on your web site. Imagine! Imagine if you paid so much attention to the content on your site that people wanted to come back daily, even multiple times a day. What would that mean to the bottom line? Yes, it takes some dedicated time and money. But, the payoff will be there.

As you go through the next couple days, following the results of the election from tonight, think about how your web site might benefit if the same attention was given to it as the web site team at CNN!

Matt White